Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.