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Breaking into the planet's most popular museum in the middle of the day, grabbing eight pieces of priceless historical gems and disappearing into Paris traffic on simple scooters may seem like the most audacious of crimes, executed for global fame and subsequent Hollywood film treatments.

Specialists who study patterns in global cultural theft, however, see the recent heist at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the latest in a series of quick-hit thefts focused more on the material value of valuable gems or metals than the historical importance, continuing a pattern that has appeared over the last ten years in Europe, Britain and the US. The venue, they propose, would have been of lesser importance to the criminals.

“You may ask why criminals who want to take expensive jewellery are entering a globally renowned museum rather than a Cartier store,” stated Christopher A Marinello. “The answer is simple: it’s because nowadays a Cartier store is more secure.”

A series of aggressive jewellery shop thefts indicate that many stores have strengthened their security in recent years, with armed guards on their premises and merchandise no longer kept on display overnight. Museums, on the other hand, look more exposed, partly because of the in-built reason of being accessible institutions in older structures, and also the financial situation in many developed nations.

“Since Covid, governments across the globe have cut back on law enforcement and the culture sector,” said Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it demonstrates how vulnerable our museums have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The theft of the items – including necklaces made up of eight sapphires and 631 diamonds, the tiara of Empress Eugénie featuring nearly 2,000 diamonds and a hugely valuable crown once owned by Napoleon III’s wife that the robbers left by the street on their way out – has naturally drawn comparisons with the historical theft of the Mona Lisa from the same museum, carried out by the worker the thief.

More relevant points of reference may be the recent burglary of jewellery from a German institution worth over millions, the taking of a multi-million pound valuable object from Blenheim Palace the that year, the 2017 heist of a valuable item from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a spate of robberies of collector items from American institutions.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as quickly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to remain intact, experts say, the criminals would struggle to find a buyer. “There’s no way to sell something as recognizable as the museum's gems on the legal marketplace”, commented Lynda Albertson of the a relevant organization.

“They are too well-known, especially given the Ministry of Culture has released images of the pieces. Even a private collector or an auction house would want to see paperwork establishing proper ownership before handling such remarkable pieces.”

In the past, museums were often reluctant to go public about the loss of well-known works of art and would remain quiet out of shame. These days, as art thefts are more reported on, the storage and sale of stolen art is dangerous for any criminal.

“Taking a famous painting, it has to stay complete or it becomes worthless, and you have to conceive of a plan to keep it in hiding, perhaps by passing it around dangerous individuals,” noted Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the danger of an partner telling the police to cash in a ransom.”

For comparable factors, an investigator said it was highly improbable that the theft had been ordered. “Stolen to order is something from films,” he said. “Nobody would touch this. It's global news and in all the media. If you buy this, if you get caught, you go to jail. You can't display it to your acquaintances, you cannot bequeath it to your family.”

Modifying stolen works by melting down or re-cutting does reduce the worth. When it comes to diamonds, it also comes with significant danger because contemporary methods give stones a larger and brighter surface area, and antique-cut stones would either attract notice or barter the price down for a concealment.

Importantly, however, dismantling or reshaping removes the evidence of the theft. “My guess is that the robbers will try to bring the stolen goods to places with diamond expertise like Israel, another nation or even as close as Antwerp, and find someone to cut out the stones,” said Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already raised questions about security measures at the institution, with a unauthorized state auditor report expected to be released soon criticising “considerable” and “ongoing” slow progress in modernizing equipment and noting that security cameras were missing in many rooms. But security experts say displaying valuable objects in historic buildings with a constant flow of visitors comes with dangers that are impossible to eliminate completely.

“Historic buildings are much harder to protect,” explained Erin Thompson. “They often have nice big street-facing windows that makes it easy for criminals to get away, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you can’t fit them with secure windows.”

The most solid security systems for structures should be designed “as a stronghold”, said a security advisor. “It should include several layers to repel attackers.”

Contemporary structures are fitted with advanced external CCTV cameras or in-built seismic detectors that raise alarm about a broken glass in immediately, but old museums may be hesitant to alter their exteriors. Laser scanners can be hard to fit to stuccoed ceilings. Sensors may also have to be turned off during the daytime as crowds stomp through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which occurred between morning hours in Paris, was common of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “There’s a good reason why thefts tend to happen at either opening or closing times. Frequently when guards change their shifts and before the museum is full of visitors who actually act as extra protection.”

Technological progress may have introduced new devices that can notify more rapidly and effectively, but it has also given robbers new tools with which to circumvent security measures. In Paris, the thieves reached the museum’s first-floor window with a vehicle-mounted ladder and breached a window with a battery-powered disc cutter.

Elaine Sciolino said the conversation in France about the historic structure had mostly centered on visitor management in the past decade, and less on protection.

The museum has an in-house team of about 50 permanent emergency personnel, but their mission is mainly to safeguard the artworks from fires and water damage. “There isn't a quick reaction team,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the safety of the Louvre all depends on government support and money, and currently the nation simply has no money.”